Zimbabweans might just be vindicated in their reported claim that they do their politics differently from Kenyans, and that the "Kenyan way" (the Kenyan inclination to resort to violence to resolve political/electoral disputes) is not only not for them but also something not to write home about. I guess we'll just have to wait a little longer and see.
The month-long delay in announcing the results of the general elections -- both Presidential and Parliamentary -- led world opinion to the conclusion that here was a country which was violating basic electoral principles and trashing democracy even more blatantly than Kenya. Mugabe was simply going to go on despite his apparent rejection by the governed -- a rejection which seemed confirmed by the Electoral Commission's refusal (under orders from above, it was feared) simply to report how the people had actually voted. He appeared hell-bent on confirming all the negatives that were being labelled on him.
But then the results of Parliamentary elections were announced after a suspenseful wait which, it appeared (while it lasted), would not end. And MDC turned out the winner with a majority. Soon, however, a highly ssuspicious decision was made to recount parliamentary votes in just about the number of constituencies which gave MDC its majority. Eventually, however, that majority was confirmed -- to the surprise of most observers (including yours truly) who had feared the worst of intentions on the part of the ruling party. But MDC supporters were in no mood to celebrate, their eyes unblinkingly cocked, as it were, on the main prize -- the Presidency.
And then, about a month after the March 29th elections, it was officially announced that MDC's Tsvangirai had actually, sobject to verification, received more votes than Zanu-PF's Mugabe (47% to 43%). This was, of course, taken by MDC as Mugabe's way of subverting the people's will, since MDC believed what its own figures told it -- namely, that Tsvangirai had scored an outright win with some 50.3% of the Presidential votes cast. The percentages officially announced meant, of course, that there would have to be a run-off between the two leading candidates, according to a constitution which stipulates that a winner on the first ballot must obtain at least 50% plus one of all the Presidential votes cast.
MDC has rejected the official figures, and threatens to boycott the run-off. This would be extremely unwise, and would be something of the very "Kenyan way" which Zimbabweans are disdainful of. You cannot be both a player and referee -- a contestant who arrogates to himself/herself the right to announce who the winner is (precisely/invariably the contestant). The threat to boycott is also based on another kind of fear, reflected in what is already happening. The fear is that Mugabe's goons will terrorize opposition strongholds to ensure a narrow victory in the second round.
But the MDC leadership has survived this terror before, and should not appear overly inclined to flee. Staying put is a posture it can indeed learn from Kenyans -- or re-learn from its own recent past. The Kenyans, of course, are at a different point in the trajetory of political succession -- the December 2007 elections having presented a real opportunity to elect Kenya's fourth President since independence in 1963. Zimbabwean's are still struggling to replace their founding President, by the ballot.
Legitimate as the fear of violence and intimidation may be, Tsvangirai and his MDC must agree to participate in the Presidential run-off election. They owe this to themselves, to Zimbabweans, to Africans (including Kenyans) and to Democracy in general. Let them use the vaunted Zimbabwean discipline to block all rigging avenues and mount a winning campaign -- just as they did in March. Let them call on all well-wishers to help them monitor the run-off. If they don't participate, they certainly cannot (will not) win. If they do participate, in alliance hopefully with Simba Makoni's side, victory appears certain. Perhaps this is Mugabe's honourable exit strategy. And even if it is not, let us see this election season to its logical conclusion
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