Congratulations to PM Raila Amolo Odinga are in order, after his stunning, almost single-handed, victory in the Bomachoge and Shinyalu Parliamentary by-elections.
I think the nation will allow him to crow and thump his chest for a while. I suspect that in Nyanza lots of tongues are wagging with, at their tips, the nickname Agwambo. I susect that at State House President Kibaki and his kitchen cabinet are, instead, tongue-tied; nay, dumbfounded. VP Kalonzo must be lost for words too. I myself am amazed at Raila's nine lives; at his escape-artistry.
While this victory doesn't change/amend Raila's flawed inner, "private" character (which is what I suspect riles Ruto & else and everyone that doesn't fit into Raila's idea of his own future), it is nevertheless integral to his enduring and deepening public persona. The man is in our face, whichever way we turn -- and very much a part of what Kenya really is today -- warts and all. Kenya and Raila are, in our time (which is the only time we have), inextricable. This is an effect you cannot, honestly, ascribe Kibaki, who increasingly belongs in the past, or Kalonzo. There's a qualitative difference here -- whatever your ethnic background. Right?
All this is said against the background (which, indeed, reinforces it) of the recently widespread, and even believable, predictions of the political doom and gloom that awaited Raila post the just concluded by-elections. He was in recent days constantly attacked and ganged-up on by all and sundry -- Ruto, Moi, Jirongo, Livondo & else (na wengineo). It did not seem that there was a way he could get out of all that quagmire unscathed. The man seemed cornered.
Political (and military) campaigns are all about victory. Victory has a great and convergent effect, all in all. It converts non-believers into believers, ardent or passive or reluctant; and the greater and more consequential the victory, the greater the effect.
Raila is the victor now, nationally; though no one really knows about tomorrow. His party, ODM, wasn't even the incumbent in Bomachoge, Kibaki's PNU was, via Nyachae's Ford-People! The man seems unstoppable right now. I think the better word is: He seems so inevitable. As the saying goes, however, a week in politics is an eternity.
As we look forward to the 2012 elections, is it safe to say the following (Ruto and The Hague always being the wild cards): that as things stand now Raila will still sweep Nyanza and Western Provinces (whichever ways they are split before 2012); that those two provinces will be massive anchors for his fight for the hearts and minds of Nairobi voters, who in any case have generally tended to lean his way; that he will get far better than 25% (and enough) of Rift Valley votes (remember that his camp also won the last two by-elections in the Rift Valley, despite Ruto's nonchalance); and that Coast and North Eastern votes are his for the taking? And Central Province? Isn't he day-dreaming if he continues to harbour thoughts of winning it -- or even faring decently there? I'll leave most of Eastern Province to "native son" Kalonzo.
Having said all that, who our next President will be in 2012 remains a twenty billion shilling question; for 2012 remains eternities away.
No comments:
Post a Comment