I am not sure that the 2012 presidential ambitions of William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta will survive the ICC trials at The Hague.
If they do, however, only Kenyatta or Ruto -- of course not both -- can conceivably become president. Ruto has already asked Kenyatta to support his presidential bid in 2012. Kenyatta has not said yes. Kenyatta's supporters, I imagine, find Ruto's call unbelievably presumptuous, and expect that it is Ruto -- with a lesser pedigree (OMG!)-- who will have to give way to Kenyatta, perhaps being rewarded with the VP's slot. And of course it is hard to see why Ruto thinks he deserves to be Kenya's president in 2012. He is one of the most toxic politicians that Kenya's political culture has ever produced.
Ruto and Kenyatta, who belong to different political parties, will not agree on the number 1 slot, even after many posturings, as time runs out, about a Raila-finishing grand alliance of political-parties.
What then? Both Ruto and Uhuru will run for president, with Raila Odinga as the one to beat. Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa, neither of whom seems to have much of a chance right now, will join the fray. After much provocation and belittling, Musalia Mudavadi will opt to remain Raila's running mate, which is their best chance for eventual victory.
None of the candidates will win outright. There will be a run-off, and it is likely to be between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga. Mudavadi would have calculated this eventuality all along.
It is in the second roud that the real hustling for votes will begin, with all sorts of alliances being brokered, broken and remade in quick succession. Kenya will never have seen such. The world will be entranced...
[More to come]
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