By all accounts, Kenyans are utterly dismayed by the failure of President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Designate Raila Odinga to seal the deal on real power-sharing -- even after the recent seven hours of one-on-one, make-or-break talks. They had already agreed on a cabinet size of 40, to be shared on a 20-20 (50%-50%) basis -- a size which, due to its largeness and the extravagance it suggests, disappoints the majority of ordinary Kenyans, and virtually all NGOs, who have expressed an opinion on this matter. The two principals clearly have misread the mood of Kenyans.
ODM has now called off further face-to-face meetings between the two principals, until certain conditions are met. In ODM's view, cabinet positions must be shared on a 50-50 basis -- in terms not just of numbers or "responsibilities", but also of real power (as measured by budgetary entitlement as well as potential and actual impact at the grassroots level in three important spheres: policy, socio-economic equity and political capital). Likewise, ODM has argued that positions of Assistant Minister, Permanent Secretary, ambassador, high commissioner and parastatal board chairperson/member and CEO -- in short, all political appointments -- should be equally shared.
In my view, this position accurately reflects the letter and spirit of the deal which Koffi Annan brokered in late February. And, as I read the public mood, most Kenyans strongly agree with ODM on this. So why the foot-dragging or perceived indecisiveness on the part of President Kibaki? Why this destructive mood -- which threatens to cause the country to self-destruct?
ODM is also calling for the cabinet to be dissolved as a precondition for installing the Grand Coalition. Elements within ODM, and even PNU now, are even calling for a fresh General Election. President Kibaki does not have to dissolve his half of the cabinet to prove that he can act decisively (but he may have to dismiss some). And he is not going to dissolve Parliament -- that would be the ultimate suicidal move! He is not that naive. He would not be qualified to run for President again. Far easier to make merry with more faces in the cabinet. And even within PNU, the latest twist in the tale is that it does not have to be a 40-person cabinet -- even a size of 20 would do, it is claimed. One detects a dose of cynicism here, however: 20 as in 10-10, or as in "forget the other 20?" ODM, on its part, now wants a cabinet of 30. If so, why did tit agree on 40 just over a week ago, after its initial limit of 34?
There are only two scenarios in which Kenya would have another General Election before 2012: (a) if a vote of no confidence in the President or government is passed by Parliament, or (b) if for some other reason there is a vacancy in the position of President of the Republic of Kenya.
What lies ahead, then? Kenyans believe that only a power-sharing accord can, first and foremost, secure their future against the kind of widespread post-election violence that we witnessed up February. Furthermore, there is an underlying sense of Solomonian justice in such an arrangement: it allows the nation to sweep under the carpet the question of who actually won the presidential elections last year, and to what extent PNU and its affiliates, as well as ODM, rigged the elections within their respective strongholds? The truth of the matter is that there was massive rigging by both sides. In the end, Kibaki edged Raila essentially because he, unlike Raila, made use of the variable Time in the release of results from his strongholds. [Zimbabwe's Mugabe (bird of a feather?) has so far simply refused to release any results of the presidential polls conducted over a week ago. But he has no qualms about calling for a recount and a re-run -- his conscience does not bother him; nor does his sense of reason]
Kenya will have a coalition government sooner than later, probably in the next two weeks -- even if it is only a band-aid government. The alternative is too ghastly to contemplate. It will be an unhappy, acrimonious, forced-marriage, to be sure -- what with the likes of Saitoti (someone should caution him about lip readers, and about his all-too-loud body-language), Michuki, Anyang'-Nyong'o (we would like to know about Mobitelea, yes, but also about Noel Creations) and Magara expected to be in it. It may turn out to be a lean government, after all (though I doubt it), but it will certainly not be a clean one. Not by any stretch of the imagination.
As we wait for the coalition cabinet to be formed, I call on Raila to arrange to be sworn in as Prime Minister -- as early as today or tomorrow. All the constitutional provisions for such an event are in place. The swearing in, even at Uhuru Park, would be more constructive (and would positively push the agenda to the next level) than calling a mass rally to protest the intransingence of the PNU side. After all, Raila was yesterday reported to have told elements within ODM that he is not giving up the security detail recently assigned to him as PM designate. The swearing in would normalize the expenses being incurred to give him security and, more importantly, transform the discussions between him and the President into discussions within government. As of now, he is portrayed, and perceived, as the outsider trying to get in. This should cease -- as it is not good for the country's political health.
