Crisis and Disaster Management | Lecture Notes by Prof. Mauri Yambo, August 2018

1.     INTRODUCTION

Before crisis and disaster, there is a variegated state of affairs we may call normalcy. A return to normalcy of some kind is always the stated or unstated goal of specific instances of crisis and disaster response and recovery. We recover toward normalcy – whether this be of the old order or, more likely, a “new normal”. Since prevention is easier sought than achieved, building survival and resilience capabilities and options among communities of potential or actual victims is more often than not – and more than authorities like to admit in public – the realistic “return to normal” to work toward. This is particularly the case with natural emergencies and disasters, and significantly less so with human-caused or technological crises and disasters.

Carceral authorities have through much of human history devised ways to manage normalcy in the lives of sequestered individuals, and the prison (as an invention) is the ultimate “ecosystem” for doing so. It has evolved over time, for sure -- as Foucault so eloquently narrated in Discipline and Punish. However, in a free world – that is, outside of the confines of the generic prison and the more extreme Gulag (as in Solzhenitsyn's rendition) – it’s hard, much harder, for state entities to ‘direct’ many (leave alone all) aspects of the ebb and flow of day-to-day life. It’s even unnecessary, and perhaps too costly and too taxing even for the most nervous of draconian regimes around the world today – such as North Korea.

Still, all countries have surveillance and investigative measures of one kind or another – or a combination of sorts. These are increasingly IT-driven and are rapidly becoming more sophisticated and smarter – and more effective in dealing with terrorism-related incidents and aftermaths, for example.  Surveillance and Monitoring are key components of the tasks assigned to any individuals with security and "boots on the ground" sleuthing in their dockets. This is so whether the security in question is national security, food security, or simply the security of boundaries, property, neighborhoods or large gatherings of people. These components can be put into effect remotely -- as in Remote Sensing or CCTV monitoring or arms-length data-mining operations -- or in close proximity to the ‘target’ of attention (as in trailing a suspect).

One senses that Kenya isn’t too (too, too) far behind global leaders in this more muted version of surveillance, and is arguably a leader on the African continent – after some hard and painful lessons learnt along the way: from independent Kenya’s first terrorist attack on 31^st December 1980, which targeted Nairobi’s Norfolk Hotel (killing between 13 and 20 and leaving nearly 100 seriously injured), the Nairobi Bomb Blast of August 7^th 1998 (in which around 


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REFERENCES

Adams, Mike (2017) "Evidence Mounts that PLAGUE Outbreak in Africa is an engineered depopulation bioweapon"

Foucault, Michel (1995) Discipline and Punish: The Birth of the Prison. New York: Random House.

UPDATED: August 24th, 2018

Disaster Mapping: Some Thoughts on Identifying/Predicting Disasters for Early Warning

[Lecture Notes, Nairobi]

NAIROBI: June 25^th 2018

1.    INTRODUCTION

Emergencies and disasters are an ever-present concern for citizens of all walks of life, all arms of government and related governmental institutions in terms of their defined dockets -- and for an expansive array of non-governmental organizations. This is so without exception all around the globe, even though entities domiciled in the West do seem to hog most of the conversation and agenda-setting, via the global media and other channels of influence controlled from the same West. And so, we’re entitled to talk about Disaster Mapping and all the related matters that have brought us here this morning.

Disaster Mapping is an interesting concept, though we should in principle first grasp the concept of disaster (which we will in a moment). Disaster Mapping essentially entails laying certain emergency-related or disaster-related metrics on a plane of gridlines which are in turn superimposed on sub-county, county, national, regional or international boundaries. Thankfully, such boundaries are already known, by and large. So the real challenge for us here today is to determine, or how to determine, the metrics and gridlines essential to managing any class of emergencies or disasters – in one or more specified locales. It follows from this that we must first clarify certain key concepts, with particular reference to the prospective career challenges of the learners/trainees present here today.

                                     

2    KEY CONCEPTS REQUIRING CLARIFICATION

Besides the anchor concepts of mapping (which we have already seen), disaster, emergency and early warning, a selection of additional concepts of interest to us during this session are the following: Forecasting, Incident Command System, Intelligence, Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, Risk, and Surveillance (or Monitoring or Remote Sensing). Many of these concepts are already interrogated on my blog (at www.mauriyambo.blogspot.com).

Disaster:   A disaster is a catastrophic/traumatic, critical and consequential result of an extreme form of emergency, which we didn't do anything about (to prevent or mitigate), or couldn't. The terms emergency and disaster are often used interchangeably, and confusingly, in "disaster management" conversations – but, for all that, they are clearly related. An emergency is, in fact, solely the event in any distinction between an emergency and a disaster. What we call a disaster is the negative-cum-extreme consequence(s) or stage(s), for its array of victims, of a morphing emergency. An emergency is an event or process; a disaster, a consequence – of a particularly harmful emergency. Read More: http://bit.ly/2HfL76l

Early Warning:  All early warning actions or instances involve, in the first place, the identification by certified or acknowledged experts (or expert systems) -- or organizations -- of a likely or impending emergency or disaster event. Such identification increasingly involves a considerable amount of predictive analytics, though some warnings must be given on very short notice -- of a few days and sometimes even hours. 

Identification is of necessity followed by a notification, the "sounding" of an 'alarm', or setting off of a dedicated and familiar alarm system, primarily targeting the groups or populations whose lives and/or livelihoods are likely to be significantly affected by the event -- or, simply, those most at risk (and/or, I may add here, those most involved in preventing or mitigating the risk). Read More: http://bit.ly/2HTMVEd

Emergency:  We can see an emergency as any out of the ordinary event which threatens to do harm or actually does harm to human well-being, life and property; or to the natural environment. Importantly, all disasters are emergencies, but not all emergencies are disasters. 

Another definition, once offered by FEMA to a business gathering, is that an emergency is: "any unplanned [we may add, or planned] event that can cause deaths or significant injuries to employees, customers or the public; or that can shut down your business, disrupt operations, cause physical or environmental damage, or threaten the facility's financial or public image."  Read More: http://bit.ly/2GG325P

Incident Command System: In their search for ways to improve the effectiveness of their work through cutting-edge models or templates, disaster managers will quickly come across the idea of the Incident Command System (ICS).
 
ICS is obviously a much-touted integrated solution, but a solution for what? ICS was never intended to prevent or reduce the occurrence of incidents –emergencies or disasters of various kinds -- but to respond optimally to them after they had occurred, whenever and wherever. An incident is something that has occurred, or is occurring. To a degree, of course, an incident can also be taken to mean something ("just") about to occur.  Read More: http://bit.ly/2m9iKwA

Intelligence:  In safety and "security" terms, as broadly conceived -- and, by extension, outside of the field of psychology -- intelligence generally refers to any kind of information or set of data considered crucial to maintaining the status quo (and related advantages), overcoming threats to it, and/or gaining actionable advantage over identified barriers to desired goals. In a much-quoted passage, Stephen Hawking, leaning toward the psychological view and away from the "security" perspective, sees intelligence rather differently -- as "the ability to adapt to change". Read More: http://bit.ly/2IEiQrZ

Mitigation: As McLoughlin (1985 170-71) sees it, mitigation involves measures or activities intended to prevent or, as a minimum, reduce the magnitude of “long-term risk” or actual harm (or damage) to “human life and property from natural or [human-caused] hazards” or events. Such measures include “building codes, disaster insurance, land-use management [principles/rules], risk mapping, safety codes, and tax incentives or disincentives.” We may add to the above measures armed escort/security, surveillance or monitoring devices, quality assurance measures or processes, and “flow”-control installations or infrastructure. Read More:  http://bit.ly/2lxh1mx

Preparedness: This concept, on the other hand, refers to measures “which develop operational capabilities for responding to an emergency: e.g., emergency operations plans, warning systems, emergency operating centers, emergency communications, emergency public information, mutual aid agreements, resource management plans, and training and exercises” (McLoughlin, 1985: 169).

Response: This, McLoughlin (1985: 169) suggests, refers to a range of measures “taken immediately before, during, or directly after and emergency that saves lives, minimizes property damage, or improves recovery.” Thus, response measures include activating the emergency or contingency plan and related emergency systems. They also encompass, inter alia, manning emergency operations centres, providing shelter and medical assistance, undertaking evacuation measures, and carrying out search and rescue operations.

Risk: Reed (1992: v) observes that "Risks are often quantified in aggregated ways (e.g. a probability of 1 in 23,000 per year of an individual dying in an earthquake in Iran)." American Society for Industrial Security (ASIS), on the other hand, defines risk as "The potential for causing losses due to the presence of a threat and vulnerability. A risk is derived from the analysis of a threat and corresponding vulnerabilities along with the probability of their interaction" (ASIS, 1994:77). Read More: http://bit.ly/2MkPD6F

Surveillance/Monitoring: Surveillance and Monitoring are key components of the tasks assigned to any individuals with security in their dockets. This is so whether the security in question is national security, food security, or simply the security of boundaries, property, neighborhoods or large gatherings of people. Surveillance can be carried out remotely (as in Remote Sensing or CCTV monitoring), or in close proximity to the ‘target’ of attention (as in trailing a suspect).

3    DISASTER MAPPING TOOLKITS: PRINCIPLES, MODELS AND EQUIPMENT

31.                  Remote Sensing: To discuss this umbrella term

32.                  GIS: To discuss Geographic Information Systems

33.                  Surveillance: To discuss the use of IT, CCTV cameras and “Boots on the Ground”

34.                  Predictive Deduction (or Predictive Analytics)

[see (1) Chris Lang (1999) Predictive Deduction: Expanding the Arsenal of Science.  Book previously posted on the Internet. http://philosophy.wisc.edu/lang/pd/pd0.htm ]

Predictive Deduction is inherently a Deductive Method of “reading data” or analysing evidence from a database. As a method, then, it is the opposite of an Experimental or Inductive approach to new or actionable knowledge. If Deduction means reasoning from the general to the specific, then Predictive Deduction means reasoning from patterns observable in  a set of historical or base data – usually stored in a database or data bank – to more specific predictions or forecasts about the relevant future. Predictive deduction is routinely used in weather forecasts, where the relevant future is all about the weather.  

To Karl Popper (1949) likewise (see The Logic of Scientific Discovery), predictive deduction was a process of “conjecturing about reality and existence” in a broadly conceived future, based on what was already known about the relevant past and present.

The following is excerpted from Chris Lang’s technical essay, titled “Adapting Formal Logic to Selection of Beliefs About the External World”, which he more recently added to the above book.

Chris Lang conceptualized Predictive Deduction as “a procedure of logic which...underlies good scientific intuition (much as algorithms underlie computer software). This method applies specifically to chaotic systems.” He justified its use on the following seven grounds:

[1] “Science is distinguished from pure math in that it yields      predictive information. [2] The only publicly endorsed methods of evaluating such information are statistical. [3] However, many consumers of [!!], including politicians and business leaders, face decisions for which it would be impractical or impossible to gather justification [for their decisions] solely through such methods. For example, it would be unethical to subject humans to properly controlled social experiments, and statistical models won’t converge for such chaotic systems anyway.

[4] Thus, people are forced to base some decisions, at least in part, on beliefs which haven’t been scientifically proven [In other words, we are forced to make arbitrary decisions]

[5] We can reduce the need for such arbitrary decision-making by establishing standards for alternate methods of identifying intelligent predictions. In 1999, [Lang] posted a book proposing a set of such standards for a step-by-step method called ‘predictive deduction’...

[6] Many scientists already use predictive deduction subconsciously (much as computer operators use software without bothering to read the code). They classify it among procedures which, as a group, are called ‘, an old and useful pillar of science.

[7] Formal predictive deduction differs from intuition in that its users can explain how they reached their conclusions. This allows peers to point out specific oversights when the method is misapplied, oversights that can be corrected while preserving the remaining valid elements of the prediction. Thus, the formal use of predictive deduction converges on accurate predictions, even without the help of auxiliary confirmation (i.e. as provided by experimentation).”

            (Chris Lang, in http://philosophy.wisc.edu/lang/pd/pd0.htm  )

Predictive Deduction, Lang concludes, is thus an attempt to systematize “what we sometimes refer to as the Sixth Sense, inspiration, gut-feeling, sensibility or intuition. Moreover, intuition often involves the subconscious adoption of the procedure of predictive induction.

4    TOWARD CUTTING-EDGE INNOVATIONS FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT: Case Study ~ Famine Early Warning System

To address technical, HR and budgetary challenges

  

    CONCLUSION

Off the cuff

REFERENCES:

Howell, Elizabeth (June 2018) "Asteroid Defense: Scanning the Sky for Threats From Space" Space.Com

Kasperson, Roger E. and K. David Pijawka (1985) "Societal Response to Hazards and Major Hazard Events: Comparing Natural and Technological Hazards", pp. 7-18, in Public Administration Review. Vol. 45. January 1985 (Special Issue).

Petak, William J. (1985). "Emergency Management: A Challenge for Public Administration", pp. 3-7, in Public Administration Review. Vol. 45. January 1985 (Special Issue).

Stedman, Craig (2018) E-Handbook: Predictive Analytics Projects Can Bolster Business Decisions. techtarget.com

UNHCR (2007) Handbook for Emergencies, Third Edition. Geneva: UNHCR

Weitering, Hanneke (June 2018) "This is NASA's New Plan to Detect and Destroy Asteroids Before they Hit Earth" Space.Com



UPDATES: June 26, 2018; July 16, 2018.

NOTE: THIS POST WILL BE UPDATED SEVERALLY

Key Concepts in Disaster and Emergency Management, Part 1 ~ A to M

1. INTRODUCTION

We live in a concept-mediated and concept-loaded world. We cannot escape concepts. Indeed, mixed into our physical Earth and its airy atmosphere is another sphere -- a component of a much larger sphere that I have elsewhere called the memetic sphere. Things of planet Earth, and of the universe at large, are of course out there in the material sphere (and ipso facto outside of the mind), but don't mean a thing to us until we process them in the mind and give them a name of sorts -- that is, until we thus attach to them a set or sets of concepts (that is, memes), which is the only viable path to actualizing our sense impressions. READ MORE

The purpose of this list is fairly straightforward. It is to zero in on concepts that are, thanks to informed conversations in a wide range of texts and media, key to pushing the agenda of disaster management in its widest sense. That is, to list the key concepts in alphabetical order, define them, and interrogate their potential for application in the rough-and-tumble of real emergency and disasters situations. As we go along, additional concepts will be added to those which initially in this Part 1 of a two-part series (which covers letters A to M of the alphabet), and which will soon follow in Part 2 (covering N to Z).


2. THE CONCEPTS

A to M:
Appraisal, Basic Needs, Chaos, Climate Change, Community, Conflict, Contamination, Contingency, Deforestation, Deployment, Desertification, Disaster, Early Warning, Emergency, Emergency Response Team (ERT), Entitlement, Expert/Abstract Systems, Famine, Global Warming, Government Service Packages (GSPs), Hazard, Hunger, Incident Command System (ICS), Indicator, Intelligence, Just-in-Time (JIT), Logistics, Management, Mitigation.


3. THE DEFINITIONS AND ELABORATIONS

Appraisal: This refers to the pre-implementation activity undertaken ahead of, and intended to inform, possible action in connection with a 'project', or a concerning situation. Such activity helps to generate the baseline information, or 'preliminary' data-set, essential to getting started with an actionable level of confidence. In emergency management, such a 'project' will address a natural or human-caused incident or contingency. This may be the onset of an epidemic or a livelihood-threatening weather condition. 


Basic Needs: Abraham Maslow's motivation theory, inextricably linked to his notion of 'hierarchy of needs', is an illuminating and still enticing approach to conversations about basic needs. Indeed, the 'twinning' of motivation and needs is practically unavoidable, regardless of the faults that one may find with either the theory or the hierarchy. At the bottom of his five-layer hierarchy are "physiological needs". Just above them are "safety needs". In this scheme of things, the most basic of all needs -- and READ MORE


Chaos: George Santayana is reported to have characterized chaos as "a name for any order that produces confusion in our minds". That is, the order or complexity that characterizes a phenomenon or process "out there" in the natural and social world may instead appear chaotic to the observer who does not have the wherewithal (tools, time, training, frame-of-mind or the like) to grasp its essential or 'below-the-surface' nature. READ MORE 


Climate Change: The concepts of climate change and global warming are, though distinct, frequently used interchangeably -- and perhaps too frequently. In reality, global warming precedes climate change, which is its logical and worrisome consequence. First the world's average temperature(s) begin to rise and gradually keep on rising, and then local and regional climate systems begin to change in manifest and quantifiable ways READ MORE


Community: In sociology, a community is typically a face-to-face group or 'aggregation' of families and individuals living in  relatively close proximity with each other and bound together by certain genealogical and/or 'social ties' as well as ecological/ geographical factors, or givens, to which their livelihoods are more or less physically tied. All of this generates reasons and opportunities for joint action at the local level, and READ MORE


Conflict: Ancient Chinese philosophers saw conflict as the ever-recurring dialectical cycle of Night and Day -- that is, of Yin and Yang. It was a 'fatal embrace' of sorts destined to always produce Tomorrow, and never yesterday. Plato, the Greek philosopher, likewise saw conflict as a dialectical engagement. In his case, it was a clash between good and evil; and, indeed, he held that "each thing has its evil and good". This dichotomy between 'good' and 'evil' or Self and Other READ MORE


Contamination: It is fairly common knowledge in science that this concept originated from the Latin word contaminat, which means "made impure" -- or "tainted with impurity". Of several definitions given in one English dictionary (The Free Dictionary), the most broadly-conceived gives us the idea of contamination as "The presence of foreign material that adulterates or renders impure a material the composition of which is thereby ..." READ MORE


Contingency: Generically, the term contingency refers to an event (or events) or variables or parameters likely in the 'foreseeable future' to impact upon, shape or influence, interfere with, or intervene in (a) an identified process, or (b) the operations of an open system. Contingencies are the ‘environmental’ factors capable of affecting the processes internal to an open system. Mapping contingency scenarios -- in terms of the most likely turn(s) of events -- is an invaluable exercise, and a READ MORE 


Deforestation: This refers to the widespread and long-term loss of tree-cover generally and mapped forest-zones in particular. Deforestation is accelerating in many places around the world, largely to growing human populations and the unrestrained use, and even plunder, of forest resources for household use and commercial purposes. Among these uses and purposes, as Sheila Reed (1992: 102-115) has pointed out, are: farming, livestock grazing, firewood collection and logging READ MORE


Deployment: Deployment is management action which involves sending (dispatching) an individual or team – that is, a contingency (or expeditionary) team or force – with certain 'self-contained' capabilities required to deal effectively with a specific ‘emergent’ problem; that is, an emergency.


Desertification: This is a long-term process brought about and sustained primarily by climate change. It occurs gradually in the form of a retreat of forest cover and grasslands in the wake of significantly diminished rains as well as the depletion of ground water. The causal factors in desertification are widely documented in scientific research. One thing is certain, however: the great deserts of the world -- such as the Sahara, the Gobi and the Middle East deserts -- are not the products of "the human READ MORE


Disaster: A disaster is a catastrophic/traumatic, critical and consequential result of an extreme form of emergency  which we didn't do anything about (to prevent or mitigate), or couldn't. The terms emergency and disaster are often used interchangeably, and confusingly, in "disaster management" conversations. An emergency is, in fact, solely the event in any distinction between an emergency and a disaster. An emergency is an emergent event, for sure, and by the same token READ MORE


Early Warning: All early warning actions or instances involve, in the first place, the identification by certified or acknowledged experts (or expert systems) -- or organizations -- of a likely or impending emergency or disaster event. Such identification increasingly involves a considerable amount of predictive analytics, though some warnings must be given on very short notice -- of a few days and sometimes even hours. Identification is of necessity followed by a notification , or the "sounding" of an READ MORE


Emergency: In addition to the conceptualization of an emergency, under the concept of Disaster, we can say that an emergency refers to any out of the ordinary event which threatens to do harm or actually does harm to human well-being, life and property; or to the natural environment. All disasters are emergencies, but not all emergencies are disasters. One definition, once offered by FEMA to a business gathering, is that an emergency is: "any unplanned [we may add, or planned] event that can cause READ MORE


Emergency Response Team (ERT): This is a small group of well-equipped individuals trained for rapid response (or deployment) to any one of a set of emergency hot-spots, or to a specific incidence or occurrence of an emergency situation (see, also, Incident Command System further down this page).


Entitlement: Amartya Sen introduced the concept of entitlement into conversations about food scarcity and famine. He pointed out that people suffer starvation not because of an absolute scarcity of food, but because of their lack of entitlement to it. In essence, vulnerability to famine is crucially a function of one's relative entitlement to food. In his book titled Poverty and Famines, he suggested four (clearly unequal) options for gaining access to food: (a) direct production, (b) food procurement READ MORE


Expert/Abstract Systems: These are systems (which increasingly subsume the notion of Artificial Intelligence, or AI) designed and built by technical or professional experts to (a) mimic and 'internalize' the expertise of experts and related rules of human reasoning, and (b) actualize semantic nets for classifying and organizing knowledge generated through such 'artificial' reasoning into 'actionable' forms and formats. All of this is intended to make key structures, processes and functions more READ MORE


Famine: This refers to widespread and systemic hunger, or more particularly starvation, that arises from acute and persisting food shortages in an area or a population. It is "the most severe and visible form of hunger" (Barbour and Dudley, 1995: 12). The main causes of famine have historically been such natural factors as drought, floods and related crop failures. However, as the two authors and others have argued, famine, wherever it occurs, has more recently become, primarily, a human-caused READ MORE



Global Warming: As already pointed out under Climate Change, global warming precedes climate change, which is thus its logical and worrisome consequence. First the world's average temperature(s) begin to rise and keep on rising, and then local and regional climate systems begin to change in manifest and quantifiable ways. Global warming is itself the direct effect of greenhouse gas emissions -- particularly the emission of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. These READ MORE


  
Government Service Packages (GSPs): The idea of GSP, which had been tried before in Sarajevo and elsewhere, really took off during the Rwanda genocide of 1994. As their name suggests, GSPs (sometimes called simply "Service Packages") were conceived of as "a last resort in exceptionally large emergencies" justifying the use of "military and civil defence assets" (UNHCR, 2000: 359). It was argued that the scale of GSP READ MORE

Hazard: A hazard is a potential source of harm to individuals, groups or a wide array of processes, systems or ‘things’ of crucial value to us as individuals, groups, communities, organizations, institutions or society. A hazard is a ‘benign’ threat ready to ‘happen’ at any 'opportune' time. As Kasperson and Pijawka (1985: 8) see it, “Hazards may be broadly defined as threats to humans and what they value – life, well-being, material goods, and environment”. In a way, a hazard exists "out there" READ MORE 


Hunger: It is the rarest of individuals who have never felt hungry at some point, between 'breakfast' and supper (or supper and 'breakfast'), during the recurrent 24-hour cycles of Earth Day. Feeling hungry, like feeling thirsty, is part of the human condition. It is the reason we routinely eat, or drink water. But the hunger that draws public attention is a significant threshold beyond that cycle; even though, unlike famine, it is generally individual-specific or household-specific, and more localized READ MORE 


Incident Command System (ICS): All forms of ICS, as well as ERT (mentined earlier), are by definition the results, implicit or explicit, of contingency planning and, even more importantly, accumulated experience in the "field". As pointed out in an earlier post on ICS: 

ICS is obviously a much-touted integrated solution, but a solution for what? ICS was never intended to prevent or reduce the occurrence of incidents -- emergencies or disasters of various kinds -- but to respond optimally to them after they READ MORE

Indicators: These are any measures, yardsticks, benchmarks, milestones or ‘proxies’ (quantitative and/or qualitative) used to document or represent (to stand for) or measure/'signal' the magnitude or attainment/achievement of an otherwise elusive target (or goal), event, phenomenon, problem or process. An indicator is a sign/signal or specification of status along a range of possible status-points -- which are in turn encapsulated in a specific standard or 'basket' of standards READ MORE


Intelligence: In "security" or safety terms, as broadly conceived -- and, by extension, outside of the field of psychology -- intelligence generally refers to any kind of information or set of data considered crucial to maintaining the status quo (and related advantages), overcoming threats to it, and/or gaining actionable advantage over identified barriers to desired goals. In a much-quoted passage, Stephen Hawking, leaning toward the psychological view and away from the "security" perspective, sees intelligence READ MORE 


Just-in-Time (JIT): Almost inextricably associated with Japanese manufacturing and transportation industries, the JIT principle is a crucially important component of savvy logistics management in war and peace -- and during all sorts of emergencies and disasters. The underlying idea is to reduce the temporal and financial costs of warehousing or storing of supplies, components or finished goods prior to intended use to near zero. JIT relies massively on the soundness of established transportation routes and READ MORE


Logistics: This is the art and science of moving, transporting and/or delivering things (material, hardware, equipment or supplies), services or even people across geographical space. Crucial considerations here include: efficiency, coordination, timeliness, security and cost; or, in general, the appropriateness of the means in relation to the mission. Vehicular breakdown and safety of passage are, likewise, always a twin-concern requiring management's 'unblinking' attention and capacity READ MORE


Management: According to Harry (2001: 16), management is a "description of what people who do the managing do". He closes the management loop by adding that, in general, the terms management and managers refer to "the people who do the managing." It follows that, in the context of disasters and emergencies, (disaster) management is a description of both what the people who manage them do, and of what kinds of people they are (in terms of skill-sets and broad social READ MORE


Mitigation: Mitigation alludes to proactive or preemptive measures or steps taken to minimize or reduce the impacts of specific incidents, emergencies or disasters before they actually occur, even when their occurrence is much anticipated -- that is, "around the corner". However, mitigation may also entail 'remedial' activities concurrent with the 'unfolding' event or situation against which they are directed. 


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CONCEPT: Emergency

Emergency: In addition to the conceptualization of an emergency given above in connection with the notion of Disaster, we can see an emergency as any out of the ordinary event which threatens to do harm or actually does harm to human well-being, life and property; or to the natural environment. All disasters are emergencies, but not all emergencies are disasters. 

Another definition, once offered by FEMA to a business gathering, is that an emergency is: "any unplanned [we may add, or planned] event that can cause deaths or significant injuries to employees, customers or the public; or that can shut down your business, disrupt operations, cause physical or environmental damage, or threaten the facility's financial or public image."

FEMA's examples of emergency events -- which have served as an initial point of reference for many individuals and organizations just getting into the more conceptual aspects of their work -- include: fire, hazardous material incident, flood or flash flood, hurricane, tornado, winter storm, earthquake, communications failure, radiological incident, civil disturbance, loss of key supplier or customer and explosion.

UNHCR (2000: 4), true to its global mandate, defines Refugee Emergency as "any situation in which the life or well-being of refugees will be threatened unless immediate and appropriate action is taken, and which demands an extraordinary response and exceptional measures."

CONCEPT: Early Warning

Early Warning: All early warning actions or instances involve, in the first place, the identification by certified or acknowledged experts (or expert systems) -- or organizations -- of a likely or impending emergency or disaster event. Such identification increasingly involves a considerable amount of predictive analytics, though some warnings must be given on very short notice -- of a few days and sometimes even hours. 

Identification is of necessity followed by a notification, the "sounding" of an 'alarm', or setting off of a dedicated and familiar alarm system, primarily targeting the groups or populations whose lives and/or livelihoods are likely to be significantly affected by the event -- or, simply, those most at risk. An early warning is not early enough, or good enough, if it arrives at the same time as the misfortune which befalls the victims it was supposed to alert and give time to get to safety, or simply out of danger. 

Early warnings trigger 'responses' across a variety of 'actors', each guided by specific contingency plans and preparedness measures. Their respective competencies and formal/informal responsibilities will more often than not require smart coordination with others for optimal effect. 

In relation to a refugee emergency, UNHCR (2000: 36) defines early warning, rather unsatisfactorily, as "the collection, analysis and use of information in order to better understand the current situation as well as likely future events." In principle, moreover, contingency planning should not be triggered by a specific early warning, contrary to what UNHCR (2000: 36) suggests. It should instead be one of the latter's anchors -- and validating factors. 

Still, all this depends, of course, on the amount of time that 'responders' have to work with between the 'moment' that a coming danger is first confirmed and the 'moment' it is expected to arrive. The longer the 'lead time', the more worthy of emergency managers' time and sense of purpose will contingency planning appear to be. The shorter and shorter it is, the less and less consequential, and doable, will such planning prove to be. 

CONCEPT: Property Protection

Property Protection: All management activity related to policy, planning, prevention, mitigation, response and/or recovery from emergencies and disasters revolves in very specific and detailed ways around securing human well-being, and the protection of both property and the environment. Property, both private and public, exists in a multiplicity of forms. Furthermore, it ranges very widely in terms of the subjective and/or market valuations of its specific representations. All of these are a legitimate and necessary concern for those formally assigned property protection duties -- and for those who have property to protect.

A cardinal rule for emergency managers and more direct responders is to recognize that whatever the quantity, quality and range of property items that individuals, families and communities have is of some value to them. The same obviously goes for corporate identities. Consequently, the owners must be helped or facilitated, as far as possible, to protect their property against damage or loss before (if possible), during and after an emergency or, even more so, a disaster. Certain broad modalities have been identified for doing this, as the following examples broadly demonstrate:

Mitigation Strategies: These include: (a) insurance, (b) building standards and codes, (c) professional codes of ethics, (d) early-warning systems, (e) manufacturing, packaging and disposal standards, (f) quarantine/isolation capabilities, and, (g) preventive maintenance. 

Protection Systems and Hazard-Response Capacities: These include (a) Inspection, surveillance/intelligence and counter-intelligence, (b) armed security, and (c) alarm systems and their various uses.

Facilities at Risk and Related Shutdown, Evacuation/ Relocation and Security Procedures: These facilities include (a) bridges, (b) harbours, (c) power-generation plants and power grids; (d) telecommunication hubs and grids, (e) a variety of 'holding' or 'storage' facilities such as dams, reservoirs, warehouses and silos, (f) hospitals, (g) factories, (h) banks, (i) sports arenas and recreational facilities (j) public buildings and private homes. 

Preservation of Records and the Cultural Heritage: Covered here are, inter alia, (a) heritage sites and related historical buildings, (b) cultural centres and museums, (c) data banks or depositories, private/public records and document storage, and related transmission lines.

CONCEPT: Ethics in Emergency and Disaster Management

As a concept, Ethics is derived from the Greek word ethikos (meaning 'arising from habit'). Ethikos in turn arose from an older Greek word ethos (which refers to the custom, character, disposition or core values of a given social entity -- which may range from the individual to the corporate group). Ethics is about conduct. Conduct, Herbert Spencer (1892: 10) pointed out, was the opposite of "purposeless actions"; which was straightforward enough, and yet sufficiently intriguing to catch thoughtful attention. But Spencer (1820-1903), whom we should all read these days, worried that attempts to see good conduct as an ethical ideal might degenerate into a tautology, equating it with a purposefulness and perfection of action. Perfection need not be the 'culminating' ideal, but here is the case he made:

"It is strange that a notion so abstract as that of perfection, or a certain ideal completeness of nature, should ever have been thought one from which a system of guidance can be evolved; as it was in a general way by Plato and more distinctly by Jonathan Edwardes. Perfection is synonymous with goodness in the highest degree; and hence to define good conduct in terms of perfection, is indirectly to define good conduct in terms of itself." (Spencer, 1892: 33)

He suggested that there was only one way out of this logjam -- the means-ends way. Thus: "...the notion of perfection like the notion of goodness can be framed only in relation to ends" (Spencer, 1892: 33). In the diverse fields of scientific and emergency management work, the concept of ethics pertains, certainly from the Spencerian perspective, to any or all dimensions of professional conduct in terms of its conformity with, threats to, or violations of, the highest value propositions of a given field of practice. 

For present purposes, then, ethics -- or more specifically, professional ethics -- refers to a code of acceptable conduct or practice on the part of an individual, group or corporate entity as guided by the highest normative principles or best traditions, or collective 'hopes', of a discipline or profession. Thus, Weber (1964: 129-130) points out, inter alia, that:

"From a sociological point of view an 'ethical' standard is one to which [people] attribute a certain type of value and which, by virtue of this belief, they treat as a valid norm governing their action. In this sense it can be spoken of as defining what is ethically good in the same way that action which is called beautiful is measured by aesthetic standards. It is possible for ethically normative beliefs of this kind to have a profound influence on action in the absence of any sort of external guarantee. This is often the case when the interests of others would be little affected by their violation."

Weber continued to say that 'ethical beliefs' could also be 'guaranteed' by religion, or firmly adhered to on account of the "disapproval of violations and the consequent boycott"; or by the probability of, or actual, legal action (Weber, 1964: 130).

The entire value-chain of humanitarian response and related emergency and disaster management work is in principle guided by implicit and explicit ethical standards. All these fall under the 'umbrella' goal of delivering "the greatest good for the greatest number" of people in actual or impending distress. A number of key concepts interrogated in the present series speak to certain elements of those standards. Among these concepts are: Climate Change, Contamination, Contingency, Deforestation, Disaster, Emergency, Entitlement, Famine, Hunger, Non-Refoulement, Pollution, Response, The Precautionary Principle and Triage.  

NOTE: The bulk of the above text is extracted, with some changes, from a longer discourse on ethics as a pivotal standard of scientific research, as referenced below. 

READ: "Ethics ~ The Apex Standard of Scientific Research..."

CONCEPT: Intelligence

Intelligence: In safety and "security" terms, as broadly conceived -- and, by extension, outside of the field of psychology -- intelligence generally refers to any kind of information or set of data considered crucial to maintaining the status quo (and related advantages), overcoming threats to it, and/or gaining actionable advantage over identified barriers to desired goals. In a much-quoted passage, Stephen Hawking, leaning toward the psychological view and away from the "security" perspective, sees intelligence rather differently -- as "the ability to adapt to change". 

From the safety and "security" perspectives -- that is, in the field of emergency and disaster management, public safety and health, and among others -- intelligence refers to any information, privileged or open-sourced, which gives managers marked advantage over likely, impending, or on-going threats to humans and all things of value to them as individuals and collectivities -- that is, family, belongings, property, community, institutions, ecosystems, society at large and country. 

"Intelligence gathering" has many labels and involves a variety of activities, including: Preparedness, precaution, data gathering (or mining), business intelligence, surveillance, monitoring, SWOT analysis, GIS, observation, investigation, probing, espionage, spying and secret service. Importantly, "Intelligence Communities" of all kinds are quite alive to the insight embedded in the adage that information is power. Interestingly, moreover, Artificial Intelligence (AI), both as a concept and bundle of practices and applications, spans both psychology and safety/"security". 

CONCEPT: Famine

Famine: This refers to widespread and systemic hunger, or more particularly starvation, that arises from acute and persisting food shortages in an area or a population. It is "the most severe and visible form of hunger" (Barbour and Dudley, 1995: 12). The main causes of famine have historically been such natural factors as drought, floods and related crop failures. However, as the two authors and others have argued, famine, wherever it occurs, has more recently become, primarily, a human-caused emergency or disaster due to poor or inefficient distribution by governments, or "intentional starvation" by warlords (Barbour and Dudley, 1995: 12-13) -- or members of the "political class". 

Clearly, the problem does not lie simply in poor distribution modalities (and the weak logistical infrastructure that helps to explain them) and deliberate (or neglectful) starvation, but also and perhaps more directly in the incompetence and lack of foresight by those assigned the tasks. Foresight here includes the financially and administratively complicated, and confounding, idea of strategic [food] reserves. 

As we see under the concept of Entitlement, Sen strongly suggests that entitlement is a crucial factor in shielding some from famine, while exposing others (those without adequate amounts of it) to famine's (or starvation's) full effects. That is, those with inadequate entitlement to food, which is always in principle available from a wide array of local and global sources. The global community is not, certainly not yet, short of food.

CONCEPT: Disaster

Disaster: A disaster is a catastrophic/traumatic, critical and consequential result of an extreme form of emergency,  which we didn't do anything about (to prevent or mitigate), or couldn't. The terms emergency and disaster are often used interchangeably, and confusingly, in "disaster management" conversations. An emergency is, in fact, solely the event in any distinction between an emergency and a disaster. 

An emergency is an emergent event, for sure, and by the same token a process. What we call a disaster is the negative-cum-extreme consequence(s) or stage(s), for its array of victims, of a morphing emergency. An emergency is an event or process; a disaster, a consequence. A disaster is a consequence in the sense that it embodies (‘personifies’) – represents – an emergent event “gone bad”. 

And yet, it is important to acknowledge that all disasters are (extreme forms of ) emergencies, but not all emergencies are disasters. That is, not all emergencies have disastrous consequences. Many emergencies, particularly those responded to effectively and in a timely fashion, never end up being recorded and disasters, even where they have directly or indirectly involved countless lives.

Updated: March 6 and May 22, 2018

Insurance in Traditional African Society: Thinking 'Aloud'

Mauri Yambo 
[Earlier version shared on September 30, 2014]

Introduction
As both concept and practice, insurance appears, at first glance, alien to everyday life in Africa – as much now as in a past that we believe we have amply covered in our schooled quests for knowledge. The fact that, unless there is regulatory/legal compulsion, Africans continue today to display limited enthusiasm for modern insurance products only adds to that negative impression. And yet first appearances are misleading and distorting to a considerable degree, in this particular case. Read more

Emergency Toolkit Laboratory (CSO 587): Introduction to the Course

What is an emergency? It is any out of the ordinary event which threatens to do harm or actually does harm to human well-being, life and property; or to the natural environment. All disasters are emergencies, but not all emergencies are disasters. Disasters are catastrophic/traumatic, critical events which occur because we haven’t, didn't or couldn't do anything or enough to prevent, mitigate or respond to them. 

What does the term toolkit mean in the phrase emergency toolkit? A toolkit is more than one tool. It is a combination (collection, array or repertoire) of tools used to respond to or preempt or otherwise manage a critical event or an emergency. But, given the practical challenges typically faced in emergency situations, there will probably be frequent need for something bigger than a kit: a toolchest, or even a container.

In the present context, the term tool refers to a range of practical resources: technologies – hardware, software and orgware (and even spiritware) – systems, processes, methods, procedures ("How Tos"), templates, standards, indicators, questionnaires, checklists, guidelines, forms, formats, formulae, plans, blueprints, manuals, records, reports and references.

An Emergency Toolkit is therefore a basket of emergency management resources available for use by specialized staff and others involved in the various stages of an emergency: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.

We title this course Emergency Toolkit Laboratory because a lab is where you scrutinize, open up, dissect, dismantle, unpackage (= disassemble, take apart or unbundle in a controlled way), test, tinker with, experiment with and/or repackage (= re-assemble in a value-adding way) high-value resources. 

In this lab, therefore, we will try to:

(a)   catalogue and describe the tools that we can identify from our readings, discussions or experiences;

(b)   "un-package" available tools and critically evaluate them as a preamble to modifying them or re-packaging them, or coming up with better or entirely new ones; and 

(c)   following all that, put together various toolkits and specify their uses based on (or in relation to) certain emergency scenarios that we will develop, and cases that we will cite and interrogate.

Note:

1. Orgware = the organizational contexts and/or ownership claims attached to specific tools or technologies of interest.

2. Spiritware = The spiritual dimensions, preconditions and/or connotations that emergency actors of one kind or another may attach to certain technologies or their use thereof.

Prof. Mauri Yambo, Department of Sociology, University of Nairobi

UPDATED: February 14, 2018

Decision-Making and Response in Emergency Situations

It is not just the rapidity of decision-making that determines the effectiveness of response to emergency (or disaster) situations., far from it. Two related factors are just as important, if not more so. These are: (a) the ready availability of response resources (skilled responders and materiel, as a minimum); and, (b) the speed, as well as the logistical robustness and flexibility, with which the responders and the materiel can be mobilized and delivered. In the absence of the said resources and logistical capability, rapid decision-making systems will appear out of place and ineffectual..

Remembering the Chinese Earthquake of May 2008

As we mark the first anniversary of the Great Sichuan Earthquake of May12, 2008, and as we remember rather more particularly what happened in and around the city of Chengdu (capital of Sichuan Province), there are images to look at (or look at again), and there are lessons to learn and re-learn:

1. Two Photo Specials:
a) Click Here for the first photo special
b) Click Here for the second photo special

2. A YouTube Footage, in which a most severe quake appears doubly so from its "shaking" effect on a CCTV (surveillance) camera whose routine and continuous gaze captures the quake's high moment -- as well as the real-time drama of (unscripted?) self-evacuation by apprehensive "office workers": Click Here

3. Click Here for lessons to learn and re-learn, and hazard/disaster classifications to ponder, as certain observers and I see them. Besides, of course, the great toll in human life and property, the phenomenon of quake lakes , and how it was responded to, as well as the ease with which apparently modern schoolhouses were, unlike older and more "traditional" ones, nearly everywhere flattened, were to me among the most attention-grabbing aspects of the Sichual Earthquake.

4. Click Here for a conversation about the environmental challenges that the Great Sichuan Earthquake wrought.