[Lecture Notes, Nairobi]
NAIROBI: June
25th 2018
1. INTRODUCTION
Emergencies and disasters are
an ever-present concern for citizens of all walks of life, all arms of
government and related governmental institutions in terms of their defined dockets
-- and for an expansive array of non-governmental organizations. This is so without
exception all around the globe, even though entities domiciled in the West do
seem to hog most of the conversation and agenda-setting, via the global media and
other channels of influence controlled from the same West. And so, we’re
entitled to talk about Disaster Mapping and all the related matters that have
brought us here this morning.
Disaster Mapping is an
interesting concept, though we should in principle first grasp the concept of
disaster (which we will in a moment). Disaster Mapping essentially entails laying
certain emergency-related or disaster-related metrics on a plane of gridlines
which are in turn superimposed on sub-county, county, national, regional or
international boundaries. Thankfully, such boundaries are already known, by and
large. So the real challenge for us here today is to determine, or how to determine,
the metrics and gridlines essential to managing any class of emergencies or
disasters – in one or more specified locales. It follows from this that we must
first clarify certain key concepts, with particular reference to the prospective
career challenges of the learners/trainees present here today.
2 KEY CONCEPTS REQUIRING CLARIFICATION
Besides the anchor concepts of mapping (which we have
already seen), disaster, emergency and early warning, a selection of additional
concepts of interest to us during this session are the following: Forecasting,
Incident Command System, Intelligence, Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, Risk,
and Surveillance (or Monitoring or Remote Sensing). Many of these concepts are
already interrogated on my blog (at www.mauriyambo.blogspot.com).
Disaster: A disaster is a catastrophic/traumatic,
critical and consequential result of an extreme form of
emergency, which we didn't do anything about (to prevent or mitigate), or
couldn't. The terms emergency and disaster are often used interchangeably, and
confusingly, in "disaster management" conversations – but, for all
that, they are clearly related. An emergency is, in fact, solely the event in any distinction between an
emergency and a disaster. What we call a disaster is the negative-cum-extreme
consequence(s) or stage(s), for its array of victims, of a morphing emergency. An emergency is an event or process; a
disaster, a consequence – of a particularly harmful emergency. Read
More: http://bit.ly/2HfL76l
Early Warning: All early warning actions or instances involve,
in the first place, the identification by certified or acknowledged experts (or
expert systems) -- or organizations -- of a likely or impending emergency or
disaster event. Such identification increasingly involves a considerable amount
of predictive analytics, though some warnings must be given on very short
notice -- of a few days and sometimes even hours.
Identification is of necessity followed by a notification, the "sounding" of an 'alarm', or setting off of a dedicated and familiar alarm system, primarily targeting the groups or populations whose lives and/or livelihoods are likely to be significantly affected by the event -- or, simply, those most at risk (and/or, I may add here, those most involved in preventing or mitigating the risk). Read More: http://bit.ly/2HTMVEd
Identification is of necessity followed by a notification, the "sounding" of an 'alarm', or setting off of a dedicated and familiar alarm system, primarily targeting the groups or populations whose lives and/or livelihoods are likely to be significantly affected by the event -- or, simply, those most at risk (and/or, I may add here, those most involved in preventing or mitigating the risk). Read More: http://bit.ly/2HTMVEd
Emergency: We can see an emergency as
any out of the ordinary event which threatens to do harm or actually does harm
to human well-being, life and property; or to the natural environment. Importantly,
all disasters are emergencies, but not all emergencies are disasters.
Another definition, once offered by FEMA to a business gathering, is that an emergency is: "any unplanned [we may add, or planned] event that can cause deaths or significant injuries to employees, customers or the public; or that can shut down your business, disrupt operations, cause physical or environmental damage, or threaten the facility's financial or public image." Read More: http://bit.ly/2GG325P
Another definition, once offered by FEMA to a business gathering, is that an emergency is: "any unplanned [we may add, or planned] event that can cause deaths or significant injuries to employees, customers or the public; or that can shut down your business, disrupt operations, cause physical or environmental damage, or threaten the facility's financial or public image." Read More: http://bit.ly/2GG325P
Incident
Command System: In their search for ways to improve the effectiveness of their work
through cutting-edge models or templates, disaster managers will quickly come
across the idea of the Incident Command System (ICS).
ICS is obviously a much-touted integrated solution, but a solution for what? ICS was never intended to prevent or reduce the occurrence of incidents –emergencies or disasters of various kinds -- but to respond optimally to them after they had occurred, whenever and wherever. An incident is something that has occurred, or is occurring. To a degree, of course, an incident can also be taken to mean something ("just") about to occur. Read More: http://bit.ly/2m9iKwA
ICS is obviously a much-touted integrated solution, but a solution for what? ICS was never intended to prevent or reduce the occurrence of incidents –emergencies or disasters of various kinds -- but to respond optimally to them after they had occurred, whenever and wherever. An incident is something that has occurred, or is occurring. To a degree, of course, an incident can also be taken to mean something ("just") about to occur. Read More: http://bit.ly/2m9iKwA
Intelligence: In safety and "security" terms, as
broadly conceived -- and, by extension, outside of the field of psychology --
intelligence generally refers to any kind of information or set of data
considered crucial to maintaining the status quo (and related
advantages), overcoming threats to it, and/or gaining actionable advantage over
identified barriers to desired goals. In a much-quoted passage, Stephen Hawking, leaning toward the psychological
view and away from the "security" perspective, sees intelligence
rather differently -- as "the ability to adapt to change". Read More: http://bit.ly/2IEiQrZ
Mitigation: As
McLoughlin (1985 170-71) sees it, mitigation involves measures or activities intended
to prevent or, as a minimum, reduce the magnitude of “long-term risk” or actual
harm (or damage) to “human life and property from natural or [human-caused]
hazards” or events. Such measures include “building codes, disaster insurance,
land-use management [principles/rules], risk mapping, safety codes, and tax
incentives or disincentives.” We may add to the above measures armed escort/security,
surveillance or monitoring devices, quality assurance measures or processes,
and “flow”-control installations or infrastructure. Read More: http://bit.ly/2lxh1mx
Preparedness: This concept,
on the other hand, refers to
measures “which develop operational capabilities for responding to an
emergency: e.g., emergency operations plans, warning systems, emergency
operating centers, emergency communications, emergency public information,
mutual aid agreements, resource management plans, and training and exercises”
(McLoughlin, 1985: 169).
Response:
This, McLoughlin (1985: 169) suggests, refers to a range of measures “taken
immediately before, during, or directly after and emergency that saves lives,
minimizes property damage, or improves recovery.” Thus, response measures include
activating the emergency or contingency plan and related emergency systems.
They also encompass, inter alia, manning
emergency operations centres, providing shelter and medical assistance, undertaking
evacuation measures, and carrying out search and rescue operations.
Risk: Reed (1992: v)
observes that "Risks are often quantified in aggregated ways (e.g. a
probability of 1 in 23,000 per year of an individual dying in an earthquake in
Iran)." American Society for Industrial Security (ASIS), on the other
hand, defines risk as "The potential for causing losses due to the
presence of a threat and vulnerability. A risk is derived from the analysis of
a threat and corresponding vulnerabilities along with the probability of their
interaction" (ASIS, 1994:77). Read More: http://bit.ly/2MkPD6F
Surveillance/Monitoring:
Surveillance and Monitoring are key components of the tasks assigned to any individuals
with security in their dockets. This is so whether the security in question is national
security, food security, or simply the security of boundaries, property,
neighborhoods or large gatherings of people. Surveillance can be carried out
remotely (as in Remote Sensing or CCTV monitoring), or in close proximity to
the ‘target’ of attention (as in trailing a suspect).
3 DISASTER MAPPING TOOLKITS: PRINCIPLES,
MODELS AND EQUIPMENT
31.
Remote
Sensing: To discuss this umbrella term
32.
GIS:
To discuss Geographic Information Systems
33.
Surveillance:
To discuss the use of IT, CCTV cameras and “Boots on
the Ground”
34.
Predictive
Deduction (or Predictive Analytics)
[see (1) Chris Lang (1999) Predictive Deduction: Expanding the Arsenal
of Science. Book previously posted on the
Internet. http://philosophy.wisc.edu/lang/pd/pd0.htm ]
Predictive Deduction is inherently a Deductive Method of “reading data” or analysing
evidence from a database. As a method, then, it is the opposite of an Experimental
or Inductive approach to new or actionable knowledge. If Deduction means reasoning
from the general to the specific, then Predictive Deduction means reasoning
from patterns observable in a set of historical
or base data – usually stored in a database or data bank – to more specific
predictions or forecasts about the relevant future. Predictive deduction is
routinely used in weather forecasts, where the relevant future is all about the
weather.
To Karl Popper (1949) likewise (see The Logic of Scientific Discovery), predictive
deduction was a process of “conjecturing about reality and existence” in a broadly
conceived future, based on what was already known about the relevant past and present.
The following is excerpted from Chris
Lang’s technical essay, titled “Adapting
Formal Logic to Selection of Beliefs About the External World”, which he
more recently added to the above book.
Chris Lang conceptualized Predictive
Deduction as “a procedure of logic
which...underlies good scientific intuition (much as algorithms underlie
computer software). This method applies specifically to chaotic systems.”
He justified its use on the following seven grounds:
[1] “Science is distinguished from pure math in that it yields predictive information. [2] The only publicly endorsed methods
of evaluating such information are statistical. [3] However, many consumers of [!!], including politicians and
business leaders, face decisions for which it would be impractical or
impossible to gather justification [for their decisions] solely through such
methods. For example, it would be unethical to subject humans to properly
controlled social experiments, and statistical models won’t converge for such
chaotic systems anyway.
[4] Thus, people are forced to base some decisions, at
least in part, on beliefs which haven’t been scientifically proven [In other
words, we are forced to make arbitrary decisions]
[5] We can reduce the need for such arbitrary decision-making
by establishing standards for alternate methods of identifying intelligent
predictions. In 1999, [Lang] posted a book proposing a set of such standards
for a step-by-step method called ‘predictive deduction’...
[6] Many scientists already use predictive deduction
subconsciously (much as computer operators use software without bothering to
read the code). They classify it among procedures which, as a group, are called
‘, an old and useful pillar of science.
[7] Formal predictive deduction differs from intuition in
that its users can explain how they reached their conclusions. This allows
peers to point out specific oversights when the method is misapplied,
oversights that can be corrected while preserving the remaining valid elements
of the prediction. Thus, the formal use of predictive deduction converges on
accurate predictions, even without the help of auxiliary confirmation (i.e. as
provided by experimentation).”
(Chris
Lang, in http://philosophy.wisc.edu/lang/pd/pd0.htm
)
Predictive Deduction, Lang concludes, is thus an attempt to systematize “what we sometimes refer to as the Sixth Sense, inspiration, gut-feeling, sensibility or intuition. Moreover, intuition often involves the subconscious adoption of the procedure of predictive induction.
4 TOWARD CUTTING-EDGE INNOVATIONS FOR DISASTER MANAGEMENT: Case Study ~ Famine Early Warning System
To address technical, HR and budgetary challenges
CONCLUSION
Off the cuff
REFERENCES:
Howell, Elizabeth (June 2018) "Asteroid Defense: Scanning the Sky for Threats From Space" Space.Com
Kasperson, Roger E. and K. David Pijawka (1985) "Societal Response to Hazards and Major Hazard Events: Comparing Natural and Technological Hazards", pp. 7-18, in Public Administration Review. Vol. 45. January 1985 (Special Issue).
Petak, William J. (1985). "Emergency Management: A Challenge for Public Administration", pp. 3-7, in Public Administration Review. Vol. 45. January 1985 (Special Issue).
Stedman, Craig (2018) E-Handbook: Predictive Analytics Projects Can Bolster Business Decisions. techtarget.com
UNHCR (2007) Handbook for Emergencies, Third Edition. Geneva: UNHCR
Weitering, Hanneke (June 2018) "This is NASA's New Plan to Detect and Destroy Asteroids Before they Hit Earth" Space.Com
UPDATES: June 26, 2018; July 16, 2018.
NOTE: THIS POST WILL BE UPDATED SEVERALLY
