CONCEPT: Early Warning

Early Warning: All early warning actions or instances involve, in the first place, the identification by certified or acknowledged experts (or expert systems) -- or organizations -- of a likely or impending emergency or disaster event. Such identification increasingly involves a considerable amount of predictive analytics, though some warnings must be given on very short notice -- of a few days and sometimes even hours. 

Identification is of necessity followed by a notification, the "sounding" of an 'alarm', or setting off of a dedicated and familiar alarm system, primarily targeting the groups or populations whose lives and/or livelihoods are likely to be significantly affected by the event -- or, simply, those most at risk. An early warning is not early enough, or good enough, if it arrives at the same time as the misfortune which befalls the victims it was supposed to alert and give time to get to safety, or simply out of danger. 

Early warnings trigger 'responses' across a variety of 'actors', each guided by specific contingency plans and preparedness measures. Their respective competencies and formal/informal responsibilities will more often than not require smart coordination with others for optimal effect. 

In relation to a refugee emergency, UNHCR (2000: 36) defines early warning, rather unsatisfactorily, as "the collection, analysis and use of information in order to better understand the current situation as well as likely future events." In principle, moreover, contingency planning should not be triggered by a specific early warning, contrary to what UNHCR (2000: 36) suggests. It should instead be one of the latter's anchors -- and validating factors. 

Still, all this depends, of course, on the amount of time that 'responders' have to work with between the 'moment' that a coming danger is first confirmed and the 'moment' it is expected to arrive. The longer the 'lead time', the more worthy of emergency managers' time and sense of purpose will contingency planning appear to be. The shorter and shorter it is, the less and less consequential, and doable, will such planning prove to be. 

CONCEPTS: Contingency and Contingency Planning

Contingency: Generically, the term contingency refers to an event (or events) or variables or parameters likely in the 'foreseeable future' to impact upon, shape or influence, interfere with, or intervene in (a) an identified process, or (b) the operations of an open system. Contingencies are the ‘environmental’ factors capable of affecting the processes internal to an open system. Mapping contingency scenarios -- in terms of the most likely turn(s) of events -- is an invaluable exercise, and a foundation for preparedness against specified risks or hazards. It is even more important as a guide to informed and effective response.

A related concept, Contingency Planning, refers in a more focused way to making actionable arrangements ahead of time -- based, inter alia, on predictive analytics (such as evidence-based weather forecasts) -- to deal with one or more emergencies likely to occur in the 'near-future' -- that is, within days, a few weeks or months, or "the year". That is to say, it is "a planning process from which a contingency plan is drawn" (UNHCR, 2000:36).

During this planning exercise, obviously conducted "in a state of uncertainty", options and "objectives are agreed, managerial and technical actions defined, and potential response systems put in place in order to prevent, or better respond to, an emergency" (UNHCR, 2000: 36; 2007: 68). Incidentally, in certain situations -- where events unfold in a manner contrary to previous predictions or original plans -- a contingency plan takes the form of a Plan B, as popularly understood, and as alluded to below. 

Contingency planning, as further elaborated upon by UNHCR (2007: 68), "builds organizational capacity and is thus a foundation for operations planning and all aspects of emergency response." It provides a 'hands-on' and focused opportunity to train and co-learn with likely co-responders to pre-identified types emergencies. Yet another defining characteristic of contingency planning is that it is anchored on scenario construction, which may take various forms, such as: Worst-Case v. Best-Case Scenario, Plan A v. Plan B, and Most-Likely v. Least-Likely Scenario (or turn of events). 

As noted by ASIS (1994: 101):

"Scenarios describe simulated emergency situations , including the overall sequence of events, details and timing of the specific activities. A scenario provides a set of problems that must be dealt with through the procedures outlined in the emergency management plan." [That is, the Contingency Plan]

 The word 'Contingency' may not even feature in the plan's title. Plans with the following titles or labels are in effect contingency plans: Preparedness Plan, Mitigation Plan, Emergency Response Plan, Emergency Management Plan, Business Recovery Plan, Evacuation Plan, Logistics Plan, and Search and Rescue Plan.



Updated: March 14 and 30, 2018