Risk: Reed (1992: v)
observes that "Risks are often quantified in aggregated ways (e.g. a
probability of 1 in 23,000 per year of an individual dying in an earthquake in
Iran)." American Society for Industrial Security (ASIS), on the other
hand, defines risk as "The potential for causing losses due to the
presence of a threat and vulnerability. A risk is derived from the analysis of
a threat and corresponding vulnerabilities along with the probability of their
interaction" (ASIS, 1994:77)
Perrin (1996: 342) observes, importantly, that AThe
definition of risk must be associated with the idea of probability,
which can be applied at two different levels: either to the phenomenon itself
(the probability that a harmful event, such as an earthquake, flood, or
conflict, will occur), or to that phenomenon=s
impact on the population and its environment. Although risk is commonly equated
with the disaster itself, it really should be linked to the probability of the
disaster=s
occurring.@
Thus we always have to specify our meaning when we use the word risk, and there
are thus two definitions:
B Arisk
of a… phenomenon occurring@ =
Threat (Perrin, 1996: 343)
B Arisk
of a disaster occurring@
= The impact of a phenomenon on a population, which depends on the latter=s
vulnerability to the phenomenon@
(Perrin, 1996: 343).
A risk equation to summarize the foregoing has
been given by USAID Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (1997: WB 3-1)
as: Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability.
